Rochester Student Homelessness Before, During, and After COVID-19

Student homelessness and what we need to do after the pandemic subsides

According to New York State data (helpfully organized and presented by the nice folks at Advocates for Children), nearly 2,000 school age children experienced homelessness in the Rochester City School District (RCSD) in the 2019-2020 academic year. While RCSD enrolled roughly a quarter of all Monroe County students last year, it contained over two-thirds of all children experiencing homelessness over that same time frame. While last year’s figure (1,992) was unacceptably high, it actually represented the lowest total for RCSD since the 2012-2013 school year, and fell by 18% from the prior year. Similarly the number of students in suburban public school districts in Monroe experiencing homelessness fell slightly in 2019-2020, while the number in charter schools rose a bit from the prior year.

As a percentage of enrollment, the percentage of homeless students in Rochester far surpasses anything found in other districts in Monroe County.

The charter school data appears a bit spotty, as some schools appear to report data inconsistently. But in the aggregate, 2.5% of students enrolled in charter schools in Rochester in 2018-19 experienced homelessness, a significantly lower figure than RCSD. Of note, one charter school in this community had a higher rate of homelessness than RCSD, Eugenio Maria de Hostos – where 12% of students experienced homelessness that year.

Aside from that one school, the rest of this homelessness data paints a familiar picture in this community. The children with the greatest needs in this community are disproportionately Rochester City School Districts students, and the level of need in the suburbs (and to a lesser extent, charter schools) bears no resemblance to the situation in the City.

And while race and ethnicity are not measures of student need, its also worth pointing out that nearly 2/3rd of Black and Latino students in Monroe County attend RCSD schools. The ongoing financial crisis faced by RCSD, along with the operational strain from serving such a high percentage of high needs students without enough resources, disproportionately harms students of color in this community.

But odds are, if you’re reading this newsletter, you already know about this larger pattern. I instead want to explore this small but significant decline in homelessness that students in our community experienced in 2019-20, and to speculate about what that might portend for the current school year and after the pandemic subsides.

What Explains this Decline in Homelessness

The small but significant decline in Monroe County students experiencing homelessness in 2019-20 was also reflected across the state. The number of homeless students in New York State was lower in 2019-20 than it had been in four years, and the decline from 2018-19 to 2019-20 was greater than any year since the state began closely tracking this data. What might explain this? Here are several theories -

• In June of 2019, Governor Cuomo signed sweeping legislation granting additional protections to renters throughout New York State. Most of this legislation phased in during the fall of 2019, shortly after the start of the school year.

• A cataclysmic pandemic struck New York State last February and March (no link needed). For both public health and economic reasons, the state implemented significant eviction moratoriums and other renter protections that extend to today. While certainly imperfect, these protections do appear to have reduced the volume of evictions in NYS.

• The state’s economy strengthened somewhat, and both child and adult poverty fell by statistically significant amounts. This is possibly due to another increase in the state’s minimum wage.

The key question, to me, is how much of the decline can be attributed to each of these explanations (along with any others I haven’t thought of)? The moratorium, after all, will eventually sunset, while the legislative protections appear somewhat permanent. What long term effect with the new tenant protections have on housing affordability and availability? The legislation seems designed to protect incumbent renters, and could have the unintended effect of making safe and affordable housing harder to find for young families. Younger students are more likely to experience homelessness in Monroe County than their older peers, so this tradeoff will be particularly important to monitor.

People who work in housing or public assistance programs locally fear a massive flood of evictions when the moratorium eventually subsides. Data from the National Council of State Housing Agencies suggests that New Yorkers owe up to $3.4 billion in back rent right now. The moratorium appears to have prevented people from losing their housing, but it doesn’t waive away rental obligations, nor is there enough government funds to make landlords whole and start from a blank slate. Could we see another steep decline in student homelessness in 2020-21 followed by an unprecedented spike in 2021-22? How can we avoid that eventuality?

Our ability to manage the transition out of this pandemic will be key to any kind of post-COVID educational recovery for students at risk of homelessness. Research shows that housing instability leads to chronic absenteeism and lower educational attainment. Our post-COVID housing policies may be a key determinant of how low-income children fare educationally over the next few years.

For example, New York can use a portion of its significant reserve of existing TANF dollars creatively to provide housing assistance to needy families during this crisis. It can also ensure right to counsel for tenants facing eviction statewide. Longer-term, the federal government can and should transform Section 8 into an entitlement program.

I won’t pretend to have all of the answers, but its clearly something that all levels of government need to grapple with. Student homelessness is something schools need to plan for, but cannot begin to address on their own. The federal government will play a large role as a funder, but New York State and local governments will need to do their part as well.

Other Things Worth Reading

• The Schuyler Center for Analysis and Advocacy’s State of New York’s Children report was just released. Its worth reviewing every year, but especially after such an unprecedented year for families in New York State.  

• Unconditional cash assistance or Universal Basic Income is going to be a standard Democratic policy position by 2024. And the NYC mayors race is going to be a fascinating affair.

• It’s a bit counter-intuitive, but legalizing the Idaho stop leads to more predictable behavior and thus safer streets for cyclists and automobiles. New York State should pass this legislation.

• Long live the Muckdogs. Who knows how viable this is in the long-term, but its great to see that they’re trying to keep baseball alive in Batavia.

• This is a compelling case for eliminating our existing set of means-tested child-focused tax credits and replacing them with a universal benefit. The fact that our current credits exclude the poorest families is inexcusable.

Rochester History Link

Rochester’s got plenty of faults, but we’ve consistently been on the correct side of racist plots to overthrow the government.